As we look ahead, we’ve spotted six things that anyone involved in digital marketing should take note of… here goes:

1. Mobile Finally Delivers

It is common to get premature in excitement over new technologies. For example: the dot-com bubble was burst on the delay between the promise of the eCommerce revolution (2000/2001) to the actual fulfillment of that promise (from 2004 incrementally to today and beyond).

The same is true of mobile – yes, we’ve all replacing our old titchy ‘just call and text’ handsets with funky new smartphones for the last 3 years or so, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that there’s an immediate payoff.

Expensive data plans, clunky interfaces, steep learning curves and lack of confidence in security has meant that many have not used these devices to their fuller potential. Now, that has changed. The devices are better, the pricing is much more competitive, the user-experience is tight (and not just the Apple iOS platform any more) and social media is driving increase in use.

Here are some stats for you to consider. By the end of 2011 these were the stand out numbers:

• Over 30% of emails are now opened on smartphones / tablets, over 50% at weekends (evenings)
• Over 40% of posts to Facebook are from mobile devices
• When incorporating tablets into ‘portable PCs’, Apple will become the world’s biggest portable PC supplier (volume and turnover)

If you have not planned for the mobile revolution then make sure you do this year. Ideally this quarter!

2. Bing Comes Second… A Good Second!

And that’s no bad thing when position one is secured by Google. You can be sure that Microsoft are going to be pressing hard to increase market share but their merger (read: takeover) of Yahoo! Search and Search Marketing, plus their ‘relationship’ with Facebook means that Bing has got a bright future and enough traction to take an increasing share of the advertisers’ buck.

3. The Social Backlash

There is no doubt that Social Media continues to gather steam – growth, use, time on site – whatever metric you want to use, it wins.

There is no doubt that IF you want to engage, speak with, understand better, relate to you customers and prospects, then Social Media is an excellent place.

However, where there IS doubt is how brands, products, services and companies can make this work to their advantage for two main reasons:

• Lack of imagination: we don’t know how many businesses do this, but many have the ‘Field of Dreams’ approach to their Pages (‘build it, and they will come’). Er – no they won’t… build it, put no creativity thought into it, and they won’t come. And for the few that do will leave. This is a social media, you need to think socially
• Narrow focus: you cannot treat social media like direct marketing and measure response and revenue out of it. If you do it this way you will fail for too many reason to mention in this article (TBC at a later date!)

At the same time, these principles need to be accepted: a ‘Like’ is worthless unless it becomes a ‘do’, impressions on your social pages are worth less than impressions on your own website, social media advertising is patchy at best (particularly LinkedIn) and the true cost of social media is the time spent managing it.

So the social backlash will mainly consist of businesses who thought (or were persuaded into) that either it would be self-fulfilling, or that it’s a straight marketing tool. Or, it may be that you have outsourced it to incompetents.

4. Companies Will Work Even Harder to Ringfence and Reward their Clients

It has always surprised us how little SMEs work to support their existing client base and reward them for their loyalty. Given that we can expect another challenging year, the competitive business will work as hard as possible on their existing contacts and make sure that they retain custom from as many as possible.

The smarter ones will also use techniques to use their existing customers to leverage further opportunity.

This will be the opportunity for true CRM – the management of actual customer relationships through a combination of media, not CRM as Salesforce describe it (sales channel – CRM with a silent ‘relationship’).

5. Limitations of Automation Will be Revealed

We get approached by many agencies purporting to have automated various things – from pay per click performance, to email response. All offering, for a monthly fee, to make our lives easier.

For the buyer this is serious compelling as the more automation, the cheaper and more scalable the services are. So, if it works then quickly, with little staff resource needed, then the benefits are clear.

However, the main question is: ‘is it better?’ And we believe that for marketing – the answer is a firm ‘no’. The main reason being that strong marketing needs two things: creativity and market knowledge. Give us a strong ad copywriter any day over an automaton: better copy, better click through, better quality score, lower spend, improved performance.

So, if you buy into automation, be very careful and test against a ‘human managed’ (ideally experienced) alternative. You may find that the only thing you’ll be scaling is your losses.

6. Performance of Apps Will Come Under Scrutiny

We’ve always maintained, when approached by clients wanting apps, that this is no gravy train… in fact, far from it, it’s more like a Ponzi / Pyramid / MLM scheme where the winners are deliberately PR’d to create the illusion of success. Yet, Apps are a thin layer of great success, covering a very deep ocean of failure.

Apple, Facebook, Google and Amazon will court you, create a convention just for you, present bold plans to you, bring you into their carefully controlled circle and, if you’re very lucky, even get you a signed Zuckerburg t-shirt.

What you have to remember is that they’re taking about 40% of everything – and every app ties your users into them (as much as you, of course). So, the more apps they have, the better their reward and, actually, it doesn’t really matter which ones make it.

So, you can see why focusing on Rovio (developers of Angry Birds) and not the 100,000+ other games that die a death hides the true picture. Recent research suggests that the average Game in the Apple App Store takes £4,000 in total revenue to the developer, and games is supposed to be the most successful category.

So, we wish you all the best for 2012 and if you want any advice or help, then please call 01962 605 000 – we’re more than happy to have a chat.

This is true when it comes to social media too. With Google+ just about a month old, we’ve seen the two common responses you’d expect from this kind of launch:

1. The Enthusiast: your typical ‘early adopter’… just sooo excited by this new entrant that they’re gushing about anything it does
2. The Critic: much keener to take a contrary position and to be perceived to be knowledgeable precisely because they aren’t excited about the launch, they prefer to criticise from a distance

And, in Google+’s launch these have been polarised. The enthusiast talks up adoption rate, invites friends, promotes through other channels; the critic avoids at all costs and, often, hasn’t even tried the service in the first place.

However, in the instance of Google+ these two positions are both supportable – because it’s not going to ‘beat’ Facebook or Twitter, it’s just trying to carve it’s own furrow. Some will use it, some won’t – but the effect it has on both Facebook and Twitter will be measurable and long-term.

So, who should be most nervous about Google+?

In our view it’s Twitter. Why? Well, for two main reasons:

ONE: Because it is struggling under an ocean of mainly junk and drivel content. We love Twitter, but it’s just ‘overdose’ and as it grows in popularity, things get worse. But Google+ can do what Twitter can do in a much more managed way. Following is just one small part of Circles and Circles is way better than Lists, and

TWO: Because there’s little else to it – it’s simplicity is also it’s weakness. Whereas Facebook is a hub of social, sharing, gaming, commerce, etc. etc. etc., Twitter is just bulk communications with a little one-to-one interaction. So, if Google+ does things better than Twitter, it has nothing else to fall back on.

Will it mean Twitter disappears? We think that’s unlikely, but I’m sure there will be some furrowed brows at Twitter HQ as Google+ develops. Our view is that 100m accounts will be the key tipping point to volume communications getting going in Google+ (estimated to happen Q4 2011).

Note to Web: Google+ Hasn’t Even Got Going Yet

Google+ is still in a managed roll out phase. You can’t sign up directly – you need to be invited. Recently our personal account was limited to 150 invites and no more.

Not only that, but the linking of search to social is much easier for Google to do given their dominance of the former.

Also, Google is holding back on various roll outs we can be certain are coming:

• Business pages: which we’re confident will be better connected with Search and Advertising than Facebook or LinkedIn’s clumsy efforts
• Realtime search v 2.0: why hook up with Twitter or Facebook when you have your own platform? It comes with a massive search volume that blogs, merchants, advertisers and people want to get in front of
• All the other Google services: they’re not quite tied up as yet, but things like Google Docs will add some very interesting spice to the mix
• Mobile: Hands up who’s got a mobile platform AND a social network? Precisely!

Wrap Up

Google has had two failed attempts at social – Wave and Buzz. Wave was let down by difficulty in access / promotion and also being before it’s time – it wasn’t easy enough to comprehend and use, yet we will see Wave functionality but in other forms (like Docs). Buzz was just a weak attempt at ‘doing Twitter’. However we believe Google has learned from these two mistakes by developing an accessible and user-friendly platform which improves on what’s out there.

It’s not really Twitter or Facebook. It’s email 4.0… the start of proper unified communications that non-users can plug into (thus the need for a Gmail account). The trend is clear – email’s popularity is on the wane and social, chat and messaging is taking over – and Google+ is right in this space. And, as first efforts go – it is very good!

#1: 1 June 2011: Google Offers Launches

Google launches a new Local Offers service in Oregon with a view to expanding rapidly across the United States, hooking up with it’s search dominance and mobile phone platform (Android)… as well as murmers of NFC (near field communications) chip technology to alert mobile users.

You don’t get bigger than Google, they’ve had a couple of false starts, but can they get it right this time round?

#2: 2 June 2011: Amazon Local Rears It’s Head

Not to be outdone, Amazon rolled out local offers in Boise, Idaho. With, wait for it, a view to expanding across the United States. Leveraging it’s huge customer base and existing ecommerce relationships (with both consumers as well as transaction suppliers) Amazon is pinning it’s hopes on developing a ‘marketplace’ approach to Local where the offers are direct from consumer brands to the general public.

Amazon’s got an email list, and it’s willing to use it!

#3: 3 June 2011 Groupon to raise £750m in Floatation

Already global, the market leader fended off a takeover bid from Google earlier in the year. Now, it reveals it’s hand. It needs $3/4 bn to retain leadership and dominance of the space. The biggest deals, the biggest space, the biggest number of local advertiser relationships and the biggest salesforce. Can it make ‘first mover advantage’ really count?

Groupon’s in first place and intends to remain there.

Why all the fuss?

Well, it’s the use of gaming mechanics to make boring bits of life more interesting (to paraphrase the 1,000+ words on Wikipedia). So, if like 99% of the population, you don’t like writing task lists, let alone actually doing the tasks – so, why not get EpicWin on your iPhone? Your tasks are now quests, and you win points and level up your Avatar as you complete tasks.

Ah, But Will it Catch On?

Ironically, it has already, you just haven’t spotted it yet. FourSquare already make a great line in making visiting places (however dull) interesting. Become a mayor, unlock a badge… and there are millions of users around the world ‘signing in’ when they visit places.

And all those automated posts onto your Facebook feed? Chances are they’re posted by these kinds of services – making virtual and real worlds more interesting by adding a layer of fun.

What’s the Next Move?

If you haven’t heard of Farmville, then you probably in the minority.  It’s the most popular game on Facebook. In a neat twist, it’s made the mundane out of a game. Stripped away all the fun and left you (and your farmer) with a load of chores to do. Guess what? It works. People love it and get hooked: must increase yield, must buy cow, etc.

So, if you’re thinking of applying gaming wisdom to make your business more effective, then talk to us, we’d love to help you level up your online activity. Because all the ‘games’ mentioned above are very, very, very serious businesses.

Twitter Verification?

Seriously, though, we find it intensely frustrating to be forced to interact with a service when there are perfectly good services already available that do this for you automatically. So, unless we must, we don’t use these services. It doesn’t make us think “wow, this user really gets the Internet”, it makes us think the opposite.

For what Spam Assassin has not done for email, we predict that Truetwit will also be as unsuccessful for Twitter.

What is It?

TrueTwit claims that it does the hard work to ‘validate’ your Twitter followers so you don’t have to. This is wrong, they don’t do the hard work – the people who are forced to validate through TrueTwit do – again, and again. Just because they chose to follow you on Twitter.

Of course, they can also get a TrueTwit account, but this is only feeding the troll (as it were).

Let’s Go Back to Basics – What is Twitter?

There are three immediate issues with TrueTwit which make it even less compelling than web-based email verification:

- Firstly, twitter accounts are already ‘validated’ to a certain extent. Now this doesn’t mean that some use ‘bots’ to post and reply to emails. Many people do… the irony is, of course, so does TrueTwit and it’s users, and

- Secondly, Twitter is not a private messaging system, it’s a dip-in, dip-out collaborative medium, and

- Thirdy, what is the problem with having followers who may not be reading your ‘Tweets’ with their own live eyes there and then? If you don’t like your messages being read by others, then why use Twitter in the first place?

Let Sense Prevail!

So, what next for TrueTwit? Well, that depends on whether its forcible signup process gains enough traction in order to become pervasive or whether common sense and the ‘sit back and use your brain cells’ logic will prevail.

Our hope is the latter, of course – but we’re not sure. Although happy to hear a compelling argument for the value that TrueTwit brings to the web… anyone?

On the face of it,

However, this is just the tip of the iceberg, there is a lot happening at the intersection of Local and Social marketing – which is what this week’s Social Summit is covering. We haven’t had a chance to make it down there, but it is the most interesting dynamic happening in online marketing and communications at the moment.

Why Social?

For many Social Media seems an impenetrable waste of energy. Why should someone be interested in our tweets? Or our followers? What is it all about?

Well, the key reason is something that has long since been the holy grail of online: community.

Facebook has done the best job so far of identifying the need for community and still it struggles to retain interest over a period of time. Other communities existing based around interest – whether it’s car ownership, or nail varnishing.

However, the issue is that these communities are mainly virtual and therefore artificial. This is not to say that the participants are not real, but there’s not much of a real world dynamic to the relationships.

How Web / Mobile Can Get Real…

Therefore, the intersection of Local and Social marketing is where it’s going to grow… where it’s going to develop, and fast.

From the $100m funding Yelp! got; to Google’s live search… to FourSquare and their ‘check in’ functionality based around geo positioning and real-life experience.

2010 is the year for Local Social. Are you prepared?

In the Internet’s case, if you don’t get on the truck straight away you find it’s fuller than a bendy bus in rush hour… however, we have served ourselves a cease and desist order when it comes to ‘Social Media Marketing’ – quotes intentional.

Put this into real-world context: if you’ve ever been at a drinks party and wanted to engage with a conversation, do you:
a)    Barge into the conversion, talk over people, relentlessly pursue your message, hand out some business cards and fliers and then exit without hearing what anyone else has to say, or do you
b)    Listen carefully, wait until you have something relevant to say, and then engage with the group in order to participate
If you can retain this picture, then you can understand better why so many marketing businesses are perplexed with social media – because social media marketing contradicts itself.

It is much better to consider Social Media as communications and PR than marketing. Once you think of it like this, then it all fits into place.

We’ll, of course, post this article to Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn… and if you’re reading this and thinking – ‘hey, so what’s the answer’… then contact us and we’ll tell you: but it has to be based on who you are, what you want to say, whether there’s an audience and how creative you can be with the message.

Sad to say: there is no ‘one size fits all’ solution. You may have been told that there is, but as of 7.57pm on Monday 9th November, We’ve just said that there isn’t…

Looking forward to going to the ‘Local Social Summit’ in November. Speakers from all round the globe coming to London to get busy and share some of the latest stuff.

Ergo will be there… keeping an appropriately firm finger on the pulse and making sure that we know exactly what we’re talking about when advising clients.

Maybe see you there? Local Social Summit Website